Building your bracket: my guide to World Cup predictions

There's a particular kind of fun in predicting a World Cup. Filling in a bracket, calling the group winners, picking your champion — it turns you from a spectator into someone with a stake in the whole thing, even if all that's riding on it is bragging rights. Here's my low-pressure approach, whether you're a seasoned fan or trying this for the first time.

Start with the groups

Predictions begin in the group stage. For each group, try to call the top two who'll advance, and have a guess at which third-placed sides might sneak through. You don't need deep expertise here — a blend of reputation, recent form and pure gut feeling does the job. Half the fun is committing to a call and then watching the matches prove you a genius or a fool.

Filling in the knockouts

Once you've got your qualifiers, the knockout bracket is where it gets properly fun. Work through the Round of 32, the 16, the quarters and the semis, picking a winner for each tie right down to the final. Brackets reward a bit of nerve — a well-judged upset that comes off feels fantastic, while playing it totally safe almost never wins these things. Trust your instincts and don't be scared to back a dark horse.

• ▪Call the top two in each group, plus likely best third-placed teams
• ▪Pick winners through each knockout round to the final
• ▪Choose a champion — and a surprise package or two
• ▪Compare with friends and track it as the tournament unfolds

A few principles that help me

Good predictions balance respect for the favourites with the knowledge that football adores a surprise. Deep, strong squads tend to go far, so a sensible champion pick usually comes from the established contenders. But every tournament throws up shocks, so sprinkle in a couple of braver calls — an underdog reaching the quarters, a big name falling early. The art is knowing where to be safe and where to gamble.

Make it a competition

Predictions are best shared. Compare brackets with friends, family or the office, and keep a running tally as results land. The good-natured arguments, the gloating, the moment someone's ridiculous wildcard actually comes off — that's all part of it. I find that having picks on the line makes me care about matches I'd otherwise ignore, which is rather the point.

Embrace being wrong

Here's the secret nobody tells you: almost everyone gets loads of predictions wrong, because the World Cup is gloriously unpredictable. That's not a bug, it's the whole appeal. The upsets that wreck your bracket are usually the tournament's best moments. So make your picks with confidence, hold them loosely, and enjoy the ride — whether your bracket survives the first week or goes up in flames, you'll be more glued to every match for having made the call.